Il Vesuvio è tranquillo - English version
There is no scientific basis to support the alarm generated by Prof. Michael Sheridan’s (currently with the University of Buffalo) allegations that “... there is more than 50% chance that a violent eruption will happen at Vesuvius next year...” (released by Newswise, 3 March 2006). The allegations are based on results that should appear on the “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences” but that are not published to date.
Based on the information currently available, the paper supplies new details on the chronology of the so-called “Avellino eruption” and constrains the areal distribution of its products. The new data do not modify the existing knowledge on the social and economic impact of possible future eruptions. In particular, the alleged 2,000 years periodicity for major eruptions, that would suggest that we are now close to a new catastrophic event, has no statistical basis. Therefore, the eruption scenarios elaborated by the Italian Civil defense do not require any update.
Vesuvius is certainly one of the most thoroughly monitored volcanoes worldwide. A number of independent networks, all run by the Napoli section (former Osservatorio Vesuviano) of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), monitor a wide spectrum of geophysical parameters. None of these networks show any sign of impendig activation of the volcano.
In conclusion, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) categorically denies all recent alarming and reckless claims concerning the activity of Vesuvius.
Prof. Enzo Boschi
Presidente dell’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Sonia Topazio
Capo Ufficio Stampa
topazio@ingv.it
Press release 9 march 2006
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